It's been a lot of fun watching the left defend President Obama's continued free fall in the polls. They kept saying things like "all presidents drop in popularity after getting elected" and later, as the free fall continued, "Obama's approval numbers are comparable to other presidents." But then when Obama recently produced the lowest approval rating ever for any president at this point in their presidency, and the trends and his job performance suggest no end in sight, all of a sudden polls don't matter to the defenders of Hopenchange. The latest battle cry to emerge is that "stats are for losers, the final score is for winners!"
Well hold onto your granola lefties because a lot of smart people who make their living within politics disagree with that sentiment. Even the progressive loons over at Time give 5 good reasons why the polls matter:
1. Congress cares about the polls
… In a recent public memo, Celinda Lake, of Lake Research Partners, pointed to a sobering statistic: Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have lost an average of 41 House seats in mid-term elections. (Democrats currently have an 81-seat advantage in the House, so Republicans could gain control of the chamber with a 41-seat pick-up in 2010.) To make matters worse, Republicans now win the generic Congressional ballot by two points, the first time the GOP has outstripped Democrats since January of 2002, according to the George Washington University Battleground Poll.
2. Health Care has become a burden
… The July Battleground poll found that 84% of Americans were "satisfied" with their health care. The same poll in December found 91% of Americans satisfied with their health care. By contrast, 51% of the same group of people rated their economic situation as "just fair" or "poor," a clear signal that people care far more about the economy and jobs than they do about their co-pays and deductibles. In the Battleground poll, 29% of Americans said they feel insecure about their access to health care, compared to 48% who said they feel insecure about their families' finances.
3. The Obama Movement has gone missing
The 2009 elections in New Jersey and Virginia were initially talked about by Obama allies as a test of the President's organizing power. By the time the votes were counted, however, with Republicans winning two Democratic seats, no one at the White House wanted to claim any responsibility. That's because the remarkable enthusiasm that greeted Obama's victory in 2008, with record turnout among independents, blacks and young people, had gone away, along with the minions of Obama organizers. … In fact, the enthusiasm gap bodes poorly for 2010, when Obama will be trying to minimize losses in the House and the Senate. According to the recent Battleground poll, just under two-thirds of Democrats say they are extremely likely to vote in upcoming elections, compared to 77% of Republicans and Independents.
4. Keynes doesn't play in Peoria
… In a recent focus group with independent voters who voted for Obama, Republican pollster Ed Goeas found significant concern about government spending. "There was a tipping point that occurred," he said. "The biggest thing I have seen beyond the intensity and the independents moving has been this focus, in the middle of a very bad economy, on spending." He continued, "They have moved from a maybe-we-have-to-do-this to a how-are-we going-to-pay-for-this. It's going to be our children and our grandchildren."
5. Washington has not changed
… But there are also signs that Obama is beginning to feel the taint of the long-standing anger against politics and politicians in general. The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found in December that 61% of the country has only some confidence, or no confidence, in Obama having the right set of goals and priorities to be President. Meanwhile, America's confidence in general remains in the gutter. When asked if they trust that government will do what is right, 32% said almost never and 46% said only some of the time.
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If Obama continues to straight up lie to the electorate and persists with all his reckless spending, back-door politics and failed economic policies, he's a one termer and will be the main reason why the House will be in Republican hands next year and the Senate more conservatively balanced.
In the meantime, we'll let the lefties keep their heads in the sand, repeating to themselves that polls don't matter. We can then give them all a collective kick in the arse when all the real change takes place as a natural correction to the worst political mistake in the history of American politics.
